[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 9 10:30:09 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 February. The 
visible solar disk is spotless apart from a new region just rotating 
around the South Eastern limb of the Sun. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next three UT days, 09-11 February. No 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite 
images. On 08 February, the solar wind speed remained elevated 
between 400 km/s and 530 km/s due to small equatorial coronal 
holes. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) range was +6/-7 nT. The three day outlook (09-11 
February) is for the solar wind speed to decline from moderately 
enhanced levels down to nominal levels due to the waning effect 
of equatorial coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11010222
      Cocos Island         4   01110123
      Darwin               4   11011222
      Townsville           6   1112-223
      Learmonth            4   12010222
      Alice Springs        4   11011222
      Gingin               6   11011233
      Canberra             3   12010122
      Hobart               4   12120122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   11130211
      Casey               15   35321233
      Mawson              19   33222236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             19   4544 3111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb     5    Quiet
11 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 6 February and 
is current for 7-9 Feb. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 08 February. 
Geomagnetic conditions in the Antarctic region were mostly quiet 
to unsettled levels with two stations recording one period each 
of minor storm levels too. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 09 February. On UT 
days 10-11 February, geomagnetic activity is expected to decline 
to mostly quiet levels.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
some minor to mild depressions during UT day 08 February. For 
the next three UT days, 09-11 February, MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values with some possible mild depressions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 7 February 
and is current for 7-9 Feb. MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some minor to mild 
depressions during UT day 08 February. Sporadic E layers were 
observed, strong at times. For the next three UT days, 09-11 
February, MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
with some possible mild depressions, in response to the predicted 
decrease in geomagnetic activity and very low levels of solar 
ionising flux.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:   246000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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