[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 21 issued 2335 UT on 07 Feb 2021

Mon Feb 8 10:35:22 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 February. The 
visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is expected to 
be very low over the next three UT days, 08-10 February. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available satellite images. On 07 February, 
the solar wind speed was elevated between 500 km/s and 550 km/s 
due to small equatorial coronal holes recaching a geoeffective 
location on the solar disk. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 11 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10/-9 nT for 
the first half of the day. Then the peak total IMF (Bt) was 6 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-4 nT 
for the second half of the day. The three day outlook (08-10 
February) is for the solar wind speed to remain moderately enhanced 
in response to a series of equatorial coronal holes reaching 
geoeffective locations on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33342221
      Cocos Island         7   23222220
      Darwin              12   33342221
      Townsville          13   33343222
      Learmonth           14   33343231
      Alice Springs       13   33343221
      Gingin              12   33342222
      Canberra            11   33342121
      Hobart              12   34342111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    28   35564211
      Casey               25   45543332
      Mawson              34   56533325

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   1000 1342     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active
09 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active
10 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 6 February and 
is current for 7-9 Feb. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 07 February. 
Active to minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to 
active on UT days 08-09 February, with a remote chance of minor 
storms. On 10 Feb, geomagnetic activity is expected to decline 
to mostly unsettled levels. The forecast disturbed conditions 
over the next 3 days is in response to several small equatorial 
coronal holes reaching a geoeffective location on the solar disk.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are 
expected for the next three UT days, 8-10 February. This is in 
response to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity 
and very low levels of solar ionising flux.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Feb     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 7 February 
and is current for 7-9 Feb. MUFs in the Australian region were 
mildly depressed during UT day 07 February. Sporadic E layers 
were observed, strong at times. For the next three UT days, 08-10 
February, mild depressions are likely in response to the predicted 
increase in the geomagnetic activity and very low levels of solar 
ionising flux.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    83300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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