[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 21 issued 2335 UT on 07 Feb 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 8 10:35:22 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 February. The
visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is expected to
be very low over the next three UT days, 08-10 February. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available satellite images. On 07 February,
the solar wind speed was elevated between 500 km/s and 550 km/s
due to small equatorial coronal holes recaching a geoeffective
location on the solar disk. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 11 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10/-9 nT for
the first half of the day. Then the peak total IMF (Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-4 nT
for the second half of the day. The three day outlook (08-10
February) is for the solar wind speed to remain moderately enhanced
in response to a series of equatorial coronal holes reaching
geoeffective locations on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 33342221
Cocos Island 7 23222220
Darwin 12 33342221
Townsville 13 33343222
Learmonth 14 33343231
Alice Springs 13 33343221
Gingin 12 33342222
Canberra 11 33342121
Hobart 12 34342111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 28 35564211
Casey 25 45543332
Mawson 34 56533325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 1000 1342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 6 February and
is current for 7-9 Feb. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 07 February.
Active to minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to
active on UT days 08-09 February, with a remote chance of minor
storms. On 10 Feb, geomagnetic activity is expected to decline
to mostly unsettled levels. The forecast disturbed conditions
over the next 3 days is in response to several small equatorial
coronal holes reaching a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected for the next three UT days, 8-10 February. This is in
response to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity
and very low levels of solar ionising flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 7 February
and is current for 7-9 Feb. MUFs in the Australian region were
mildly depressed during UT day 07 February. Sporadic E layers
were observed, strong at times. For the next three UT days, 08-10
February, mild depressions are likely in response to the predicted
increase in the geomagnetic activity and very low levels of solar
ionising flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 83300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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