[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 7 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 February. The
visible solar disk is spotless. Solar activity is expected to
be very low over the next three UT days, 07-09 February. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available satellite images. On 06 February,
the solar wind speed was mostly steady near 380 km/s up till
06/1700 UT and thereafter increased gradually to 470 km/s. The
current solar wind speed is near 470 km/s. This is in response
to a small equatorial coronal hole recaching a geoeffective location
on the solar disk. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 13 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10/-9 nT. The three
day outlook (07-09 February) is for the solar wind speed to remain
moderately enhanced in response to a series of equatorial coronal
holes reaching geoeffective locations on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 10002332
Cocos Island 5 10201331
Darwin 5 10002332
Townsville 6 11002332
Learmonth 6 1101233-
Alice Springs 5 10002332
Gingin 7 11002342
Canberra 5 00002332
Hobart 5 00002332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 00003531
Casey 11 22322333
Mawson 17 32112552
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 19 Active
08 Feb 12 Unsettled
09 Feb 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06 February. Quiet to active
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to reach active levels with possible minor
storm periods on 07 February. On 08 Feb, geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline to mostly unsettled levels. This may be
followed by an increase in geomagnetic activity as another slightly
larger equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach a geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected for the next three UT days, 7-9 February. This is in
response to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity
and very low levels of solar ionising flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Feb -20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Feb -20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly depressed
during UT day 06 February. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong
at times. For the next three UT days, 07-09 February, mild to
moderate depressions are likely in response to the predicted
increase in the geomagnetic activity and very low levels of solar
ionising flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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