[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 11 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 12 10:31:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: On UT day 11 December, solar activity was very low,
with no notable flares. There is currently one numbered region
on the visible solar disc; AR2904 located at S28W31. Solar activity
is expected to be very low on UT days 12-14 December. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 11 December, the solar wind speed was near its nominal
level and ranged from 300 to 330 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt)
was 10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +8/-6 nT. The
IMF Bz was predominantly southward between 11/0130 UT and 11/0600
UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its nominal
levels for the next three UT days (12-14 December), with minor
enhancements possible due to patchy coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 23200001
Cocos Island 2 22100000
Darwin 4 23100002
Townsville 4 23101012
Learmonth 4 33100001
Alice Springs 3 22200002
Gingin 3 32100001
Canberra 4 23200001
Hobart 5 23300001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 22200001
Casey 20 55521111
Mawson 14 35311033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 5 Quiet
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 11 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian regions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active levels
were observed in the Antarctic regions. These mildly elevated
conditions occurred during the early part of UT 11 December and
was mainly because with IMF Bz stayed southward for prolonged
periods. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mainly quiet
for the next three UT days (12 - 14 December), with a chance
of isolated unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal and occasional fair HF conditions are
expected during 12-14 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 9 December
and is current for 10-12 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 11 December were variable ranging from 40% depressed at
times to near predicted monthly values, possibly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Similar conditions are expected during
12-14 December. Strong sporadic E were observed at some sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 14.1 p/cc Temp: 19800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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