[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 10 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 11 10:31:01 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              76/14              78/17

COMMENT: On UT day 10 December, solar activity was very low, 
with no notable flares. There are currently two numbered regions 
(AR2903 and AR2904) on the visible solar disc. AR2903 will soon 
rotate to the farside of the sun. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low on UT days 11-13 December. No Earth directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
10 December, the solar wind speed was near its nominal level 
and ranged from 300 to 330 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 
10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +4/-4 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its nominal levels for 
the next three UT days (11-13 December).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Cocos Island         2   --110111
      Darwin               2   11110111
      Townsville           5   12111222
      Learmonth            4   01111222
      Alice Springs        2   11110111
      Gingin               2   10111111
      Canberra             3   02111211
      Hobart               2   01111201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00101000
      Casey               10   24321222
      Mawson               8   32121114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0100 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec     5    Quiet
12 Dec     5    Quiet
13 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 10 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to unsettled levels were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three UT days (11 - 
13 December), with a chance of isolated unsettled conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during 
11-13 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 9 December 
and is current for 10-12 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on 
UT day 10 December were variable ranging from 20% depressed at 
times to near predicted monthly values, possibly due to low levels 
of ionising solar flux. Similar conditions are expected during 
11-13 December. Strong sporadic E frequently observed.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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