[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 21 issued 2353 UT on 29 Aug 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 30 09:53:05 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 29 August 
with three C-class flares, all from region 2860. The largest 
C8.1 flare peaked at 29/1003 UT. There are currently four numbered 
regions on the visible disk: AR2859, AR2860, AR2861, and AR2862. 
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 
UT days 29-31 August because there is a chance of M-class flares 
due to the flaring potential of AR2860. The CME associated with 
28 August M4.7 flare (S29E00) is expected to arrived on earth 
on late UT day 31 August or on early UT day 01 September. The 
possible CME associated with the large disappearing filament 
at about 28/1400 UT centered at N35E10 is being further investigated. 
On UT day 29 August, the solar wind speed varied in the range 
of 350 - 420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 1 nT to 10 nT. 
The IMF north-south component (Bz) was varying in the range -4/+6 
nT. There is evidence of mild perturbation in solar wind conditions 
at near 29/1945 UT, possibly indicating the arrival of the 26 
August CME. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near mildly 
elevated levels today.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22110222
      Cocos Island         4   22110122
      Darwin               5   22110222
      Townsville           5   22110222
      Learmonth            5   22111222
      Alice Springs        5   22110222
      Gingin               6   22110232
      Canberra             4   22010222
      Hobart               4   11011222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   11000221
      Casey                9   33311222
      Mawson              14   23211245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             17   5343 1311     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug    10    Initially quiet and active towards the end of 
                UT day
01 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 28 August and 
is current for 28-30 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
quiet in the Australian region and at quiet to unsettled levels 
in the Antarctic region on UT day 29 August. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT 
day 30 August. However, there remains the possibility of an isolated 
active to minor storm period if the IMF Bz remains southwards 
for prolonged periods. On 31 August, geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be initially quiet and then may reach active levels 
in response to the arrival of 28 August CME caused by the M4.7 
flare. Active to unsettled conditions are expected to continue 
on UT day 01 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 August were 
mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values. Mild MUF depressions 
were observed during the local night over most ionosonde sites. 
MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 30 August - 01 September 
are expected to be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly 
values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    22000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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