[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 August 21 issued 2335 UT on 30 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 31 09:35:03 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 30 August
with several low level C-class flares, all from region 2860.This
region remained a beta-ganmma class and showed further decline.
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on UT days 31
August-02 September with a slight chance of an isolated M-class
flare from AR2860. A narrow fast CME was observed at 30/0212
UT possibly associated with a B7 flare at 30/0129UT from region
2862(on the SW limb), unlikely to have any earth directed component.
No other earth directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite
imagery. On UT day 30 August, the solar wind speed was slightly
enhanced, between 430-390 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at
9 nT and the north-south component (Bz) was in the range -/+
4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at enhanced levels
over the next three days, 31 August-02 September due to influence
of recent CME activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22312011
Cocos Island 4 12222011
Darwin 5 22312001
Townsville 6 22312012
Learmonth 6 22322012
Alice Springs 5 22312001
Gingin 4 22212011
Canberra 3 12212001
Hobart 4 12212002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 11123001
Casey 10 33422112
Mawson 22 34532135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2211 1243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 18 Quiet to Active
01 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
02 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
in the Australian region. Minor storm periods observed in the
Antarctic region on UT day 30 August. On 31 August,geomagnetic
activity is expected to be initially quiet to unsettled and then
may reach active levels in response to the arrival of 28 August
CME caused by the M4.7 flare. Active to unsettled conditions
are expected to continue on UT day 01 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 August were
mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the
Australian region on UT days 31 August - 02 September are expected
to be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 49500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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