[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 21 issued 2344 UT on 21 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 22 09:44:36 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT "Corrected version"
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 21 August, with a C1
flare from the new region 2859 that has just rotated over the
northeast limb at 20/2000UT. There are currently two numbered
regions on the visible disk: AR2858 (N13W39 Bxo-Beta) and AR2859
(N18E69 Cro-Beta). There is a large unstable filament in the
northeast quadrant that will continue to be monitored. A DSF
was observed in H-alpha images near S60E20 around 21/09 UT. Also
there was a large filament eruption observed north of region
2858 in SDO 193 images near N15W35 around 21/1027 UT. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT
days 22-24 August. On UT day 21 August, the solar wind speed
was between 295 km/s and 355 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked
at 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +7/-4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
to slightly enhanced on UT days 22-23 August. However the solar
wind speed is expected to increase to moderately enhanced levels
on UT day 24 August, due to a northern polar coronal hole with
extension down to low latitudes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 01211000
Cocos Island 2 11211010
Darwin 2 11211001
Townsville 3 11221011
Learmonth 2 01211000
Alice Springs 1 00211000
Gingin 2 00211010
Canberra 1 00111000
Hobart 1 00111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 22221110
Mawson 3 00220112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1132 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug 17 Unsettled to active with a chance of minor storms
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and in the Antarctic region on UT day 21 August. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on UT days 22-23 August due to weak coronal hole effects. Then
on UT day 24 August unsettled to active conditions are expected
with a chance of minor (G1) storms, due to a northern polar coronal
hole with extension down to low latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 22-24 August. Some mild degradations in HF propagation
conditions may occur on UT day 24 August, due to the expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 August were
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian region during the local night. There
were also some moderate MUF depressions in the Cocos Island region
during the local night. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days
22-24 August are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values. Some mild MUF depressions may occur on UT day 24 August,
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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