[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 23 09:30:55 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 August with three 
C1 flares region 2859, the largest of which was a C1.9 flare 
at 1020 UT. There are currently two numbered regions on the visible 
disk: AR2858 (N13W51 Axx-Alpha) and AR2859 (N19E63 Hrx-Alpha). 
The large unstable filament in the northeast quadrant disappeared 
from H-alpha images around 22/15 UT. Also there was a filament 
eruption observed in SDO images near E05S65 around 22/0207 UT. 
There was a weak CME towards the south observed in Lasco images 
around 22/03 UT that may be associated with this filament eruption. 
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph 
images. Solar activity is expected to be low on UT days 23-25 
August. On UT day 22 August, the solar wind speed was between 
290 km/s and 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and 
the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +3/-1 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be near background levels to slightly 
enhanced on UT day 23 August. However the solar wind speed is 
expected to increase to moderately enhanced levels on UT days 
24-25 August, due to a northern polar coronal hole with extension 
down to low latitudes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101101
      Cocos Island         2   11111100
      Darwin               2   11101101
      Townsville           3   11101112
      Learmonth            1   10101100
      Alice Springs        2   11101101
      Gingin               1   10100100
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Hobart               1   01100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   12300110
      Mawson               4   22300100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1012 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active
25 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region and quiet to unsettled in the Antarctic region on UT day 
22 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet 
to unsettled on UT day 23 August due to weak coronal hole effects. 
Then on UT days 24-25 August unsettled to active conditions are 
expected, due to a northern polar coronal hole with extension 
down to low latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 23-25 August. Some mild degradations in HF propagation 
conditions may occur on UT days 24-25 August, due to the expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 August were 
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions 
in the Northern Australian region during the local day and in 
the Cocos Island region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT days 23-25 August are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values. Some mild MUF depressions may occur 
on UT days 24-25 August, due to the expected increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    43000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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