[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 22 09:30:54 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 August, with 
only some weak B-class flares mainly from the new region 2859 
that has just rotated over the northeast limb. There are currently 
two numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2858 (N13W39 Bxo-Beta) 
and AR2859 (N18E69 Cro-Beta). There is a large unstable filament 
in the northeast quadrant that will continue to be monitored. 
A DSF was observed in H-alpha images near S60E20 around 21/09 
UT. Also there was a large filament eruption observed north of 
region 2858 in SDO 193 images near N15W35 around 21/1027 UT. 
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph 
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT 
days 22-24 August. On UT day 21 August, the solar wind speed 
was between 295 km/s and 355 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked 
at 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +7/-4 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels 
to slightly enhanced on UT days 22-23 August. However the solar 
wind speed is expected to increase to moderately enhanced levels 
on UT day 24 August, due to a northern polar coronal hole with 
extension down to low latitudes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01211000
      Cocos Island         2   11211010
      Darwin               2   11211001
      Townsville           3   11221011
      Learmonth            2   01211000
      Alice Springs        1   00211000
      Gingin               2   00211010
      Canberra             1   00111000
      Hobart               1   00111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                4   22221110
      Mawson               3   00220112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1132 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug    17    Unsettled to active with a chance of minor storms

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region and in the Antarctic region on UT day 21 August. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled 
on UT days 22-23 August due to weak coronal hole effects. Then 
on UT day 24 August unsettled to active conditions are expected 
with a chance of minor (G1) storms, due to a northern polar coronal 
hole with extension down to low latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 22-24 August. Some mild degradations in HF propagation 
conditions may occur on UT day 24 August, due to the expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 August were 
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions 
in the Northern Australian region during the local night. There 
were also some moderate MUF depressions in the Cocos Island region 
during the local night. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 
22-24 August are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Some mild MUF depressions may occur on UT day 24 August, 
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    51900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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