[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 15 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 August. There
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disk. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 15 to 17 August.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph
images during the last 24 hours. On 14 August, the solar wind
speed showed a gradual decrease from 400 to 340 km/s, the total
IMF (Bt) varied between 2 and 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
component range was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mostly near background levels on UT days 15 to 17 August
with small possibility of occasional minor enhancements on 15
August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 2 11110101
Learmonth 2 11110110
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Gingin 1 10100110
Canberra 1 11100100
Hobart 1 11100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 5 32220111
Mawson 6 32220122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 2222 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 5 Quiet
16 Aug 5 Quiet
17 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian and the Antarctic
regions was predominantly quiet on UT day 14 August. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay at quiet levels on UT days 15 to
17 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 15 to 17 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 14 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor depressions in the
Northern Australian region were observed. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 15 to 17 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 79800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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