[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 16 09:30:08 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 August. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 16 to 18 August. 
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph 
images during the last 24 hours. On 15 August, the solar wind 
speed showed a gradual increase from 360 to 500 km/s, the total 
IMF (Bt) varied between 3 and 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) 
component range was +6/-8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be mostly near background levels on UT days 16 to 18 August 
with small possibility of occasional minor enhancements on 16 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22331122
      Cocos Island         3   12210011
      Darwin               6   22321111
      Townsville           8   22331222
      Learmonth            8   22331122
      Alice Springs        5   12320111
      Gingin               8   22331122
      Canberra             6   12330112
      Hobart               7   12331122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     5   01331111
      Casey                9   23331122
      Mawson              30   53432256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1121 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug     7    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Aug     5    Quiet
18 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian and the Antarctic 
regions was predominantly quiet to unsettled on UT day 15 August 
with one active and three minor storm periods recorded on one 
Antarctic station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be at quiet to unsettled levels on UT days 16 August and quiet 
on 17 and 18 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 16 to 18 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Aug    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    18    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    18    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 August were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor depressions in the 
Northern Australian region were observed. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 16 to 18 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    93700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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