[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 14 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 13 August. A C1.4 flare
was observed at 13/21:08 UT. There is currently one numbered
region on the visible disk. Solar activity is expected to be
very low on UT days 14 to 16 August. No Earth directed CMEs have
been observed in the available coronagraph images during the
last 24 hours. On 13 August, the solar wind speed first decreased
gradually from 380 to 350 km/s and then increased to 462 by 14:26
UT. The solar wind speed again showed a decrease and was at 415
km/s around 23:00 UT. On this day, the total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2 and 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range
was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near
background levels on UT days 14 to 16 August with small possibility
of occasional minor enhancements on 14 and 15 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11220101
Cocos Island 3 11311100
Darwin 3 12211101
Townsville 5 11321112
Learmonth 4 21320200
Alice Springs 2 00210101
Gingin 3 21210200
Canberra 2 01220100
Hobart 2 11220100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00230000
Casey 6 22321210
Mawson 13 33312324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 0011 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
15 Aug 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
16 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian and the Antarctic
regions was mostly quiet with some unsettled periods on UT day
13 August. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly
at quiet levels on UT days 14 to 16 August with small possibility
of some unsettled periods on UT days 14 and 15 August due to
small possibility of some solar wind streams from the north-pole
coronal hole to connect with the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 14-16 August with the possibility of some minor
to mild MUF depression periods on 14 and 15 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 13 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions
in the Northern Australian region and moderate MUF enhancements
in the Southern Australian regions were observed. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 14-16 August with the possibility of some minor
to mild MUF depressions periods on 14 and 15 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 75500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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