[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 13 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 August. There
is currently one numbered region on on the visible disk. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 August. LASCO C2
imagery observed a CME around 12/0912UT. This CME appears to
be from the far side of the Sun and is unlikely to be geoeffective.
No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available
coronagraph images. On 12 August, the solar wind speed remained
slightly enhanced, between 390-440 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was
under 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +/-4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background
levels on UT days 13-15 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 01101112
Cocos Island 1 00110111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 11101122
Learmonth 3 01211112
Alice Springs 2 01101111
Gingin 3 00101222
Canberra 2 00000212
Hobart 2 00001212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00001101
Casey 6 12312122
Mawson 14 22112354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2321 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 7 Mostly quiet
14 Aug 5 Quiet
15 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 12 August. Isolated active periods observed in
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on 13-15 August with a chance of isolated
unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF propagation conditions are expected
on 13-15 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 12 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions
observed over the Northern Australian region. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values on UT
days 13-15 August with some mild MUF depressions possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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