[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 5 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 April. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days,
05-07 April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On 04 April,
the solar wind speed range was 300-340 km/s, with a peak total
IMF (Bt) of 4 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) range of +1/-2 nT.
On 05 April, solar wind speed is expected to vary between its
background and mildly elevated levels; the mild enhancements
are due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 00101100
Cocos Island 1 10101100
Darwin 1 00101101
Townsville 1 00101111
Learmonth 1 00101100
Alice Springs 0 00001100
Gingin 1 100011--
Canberra 0 00001100
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00111000
Casey 4 12211201
Mawson 6 30200114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 04 April, with quiet to active levels observed at southern
high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
05-07 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 05-07 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
06 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions varied mostly between
near predicted monthly levels and moderately depressed levels
on UT day 04 April. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 05-07 April; mild to moderate depressions are possible
on 05 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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