[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 4 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 April. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three days,
04-06 April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On 03 April,
the solar wind speed range was 330-400 km/s, with a peak total
IMF (Bt) of 7 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) range of +3/-3 nT.
Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly elevated on 04-06
April due to weak coronal hole effects. There is the chance of
an impact from the 30 March CME on 04 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11112000
Cocos Island 1 11011000
Darwin 2 11112001
Townsville 3 12112011
Learmonth 2 11112000
Alice Springs 2 12112000
Gingin 1 11111000
Canberra 1 11011000
Hobart 2 12112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11011000
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 15 24211154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1000 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 7 Quiet
06 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03 April, with quiet to active levels observed
at southern high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for 04 to 06 April due to weak coronal hole effects.
The weak 30 March CME may arrive on 04 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 04-06 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data
Niue Island Region:
No data
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were from near monthly
predicted to mildly depressed levels on UT day 03 April. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 04-06 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 64600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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