[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 6 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 April. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days, 
06-08 April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On 05 April, 
the solar wind speed range was 300-340 km/s, with a peak total 
IMF (Bt) of 9 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) range of +8/-8 nT. 
The IMF Bz was predominantly southward from 05/1000 UT to 05/1500 
UT. On 06 and 07 April, solar wind speed is expected to vary 
between its background and mildly elevated levels; the mild enhancements 
are due to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01123100
      Cocos Island         2   01122100
      Darwin               4   01123101
      Townsville           4   01123111
      Learmonth            4   00123200
      Alice Springs        4   01123101
      Gingin               4   22122100
      Canberra             3   00123000
      Hobart               3   01123100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   00114000
      Casey                7   23323100
      Mawson               6   31112222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1010 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     5    Quiet
08 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian and 
southern high latitudes regions on UT day 05 April. Quiet to 
unsettled conditions are expected for today (UT day 06 April). 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected from UT 07 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 06-08 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      9
Apr      19
May      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions varied mostly between 
near predicted monthly levels and moderately depressed levels 
on UT day 05 April. Similar MUFs conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 06-08 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    19100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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