[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Sep 2020

Sat Sep 26 09:31:38 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 September. 
There is one numbered region on the visible disc, 2773 (currently 
at N30E32). No returning active regions are expected. No Earthbound 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph data. The solar 
wind speed ranged between 460 and 510 km/s, currently near 480 
km/s. For the total IMF (Bt) and its north-south component (Bz) 
the ranges were 3-8 nT and +2/-6 nT, respectively; Bz was mostly 
negative. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for 
26-28 September. Solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated 
during 26-28 September in response to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22332423
      Cocos Island         6   11222312
      Darwin              11   22332412
      Townsville          12   22332423
      Learmonth           14   21332523
      Alice Springs       11   12332413
      Gingin              11   21232423
      Canberra            10   12232422
      Hobart              12   12332423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    15   11343512
      Casey               16   33432423
      Mawson              59   65333667

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3353 4402     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
27 Sep    20    Active
28 Sep    20    Active

COMMENT: Quiet to active conditions were observed in the Australian 
region and mostly quiet to major storm levels in the Antarctic 
region on UT day 25 September. Global conditions are expected 
to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on 26 September 
and unsettled to active on 27-28 September due to coronal hole 
effects. There is a chance of isolated minor storm periods for 
all three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 26-28 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Sep    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 25 September 
and is current for 25-26 Sep. MUFs in the Australian region were 
generally near predicted monthly values during daytime and enhanced 
through the night on UT day 25 September. Antarctic MUFs were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on 26-28 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:   257000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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