[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 27 09:31:30 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 September. 
There is one numbered region on the visible disc, 2773 (currently 
at N30E20). This region produced a weak C-class flare, C1 at 
26/0038 UT. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for 
27-29 September. No Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph data during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed 
ranged between 500 and 580 km/s, currently near 500 km/s. This 
moderately elevated solar wind speed is in response to a Northern 
Polar coronal hole. For the total IMF (Bt) and its north-south 
component (Bz) the ranges were 3-9 nT and +8/-8 nT, respectively; 
Bz was mostly negative. Solar wind parameters are expected to 
remain elevated for most of today (UT day 27 September). From 
late UT day 27 September, the solar wind is expected to enhance 
further to high level as another larger Northern Polar coronal 
hole with extension into the equatorial region is expected to 
reach the geoeffective location on the solar disk. The high solar 
wind speeds are expected to continue on UT days 28-29 September 
in response to the coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   22244322
      Cocos Island         7   12133212
      Darwin               8   22233212
      Townsville          16   32344323
      Learmonth           15   32244323
      Alice Springs       11   22243322
      Gingin              15   23244323
      Canberra            15   23344322
      Hobart              14   23344312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    40   34476412
      Casey               14   33343223
      Mawson              44   65434456

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18   3333 1444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep    25    Active
28 Sep    20    Active
29 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 25 September 
and is current for 26-27 Sep. Quiet to active conditions were 
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to major storm 
levels in the Antarctic region on UT day 26 September. Global 
conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled to active on 27-28 
September due to coronal hole effects. There is a chance of isolated 
minor to major storm periods during these two days. Aurora may 
be visible on the local nights on 27 and 28 September from Tasmania 
and Southern parts of Victoria. Mostly unsettled conditions are 
expected on UT day 29 September with isolated chance of active 
periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
28 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 27-29 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted 
monthly to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 26 September. 
Antarctic MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs 
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on 27-29 September, with a chance of some minor 
MUF degradations due to the current disturbed geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:   282000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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