[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Sep 2020

Fri Sep 25 09:31:45 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 September. 
AR 2773 (N29E50) is classified as AXX/alpha with one spot. No 
returning regions expected. No Earthbound CMEs observed in the 
few coronagraph images. Solar wind speed increased to peak at 
533 km/s near 0730 UT. Wind speed is now ranging between 450 
to 500 km/s. The total IMF peaked at 11 nT near 0240 UT. The 
north-south IMF (Bz) range was +7/-9 nT with maximum southward 
deflection at 0452 UT. Greatest Bz deviations occurred between 
0430 to 0830 UT with extended southward periods between 0230 
to 1600 UT. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 25 
to 27 September. Solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated 
25 to 27 September in response to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23334201
      Cocos Island         8   23323201
      Darwin              11   33324201
      Townsville          12   23434201
      Learmonth           11   23334201
      Alice Springs       10   23324201
      Gingin               9   22333301
      Canberra            10   22424201
      Hobart              12   22434301    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    22   12645301
      Casey               16   35433211
      Mawson              31   34644415

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   1122 4242     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep    15    Quiet to Active
26 Sep    18    Active
27 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 23 September 
and is current for 24-25 Sep. Quiet to active conditions were 
observed in the Australian region and quiet to storm levels in 
the Antarctic region on UT day 24 September. Global conditions 
are expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods 25 
to 27 September in response to coronal hole effects. Chance of 
an isolated minor storm period from 26 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Fair to normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
25 to 27 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Sep     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed to 20% 
                at times.
26 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted 
monthly values during daytime and enhanced through the night 
on UT day 24 September. Antarctic MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values on 25 to 27 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:   10.0 p/cc  Temp:    75400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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