[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 26 10:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 25 October and
is expected to stay Very Low for the next 3 UT days (26 to 28
October) with a small possibility of C-class flares. No earthbound
CMEs were observed in the available imagery. There is currently
one numbered sunspot region on the disk (AR2776 at S14 W80).
On UT day 25 October, the solar wind continued to be enhanced
due to the influence of a north polar coronal hole extension.
At the start of the UT day, the solar wind speed varied between
520-595 km/s, then gradually declined, currently varying between
500-540 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-8 nT, and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between -5 to +8
nT. The solar wind is expected to become further enhanced on
UT day 26 October as the high speed wind streams from another
north polar coronal hole extension and an equatorial coronal
hole become geoeffective. The enhanced solar winds are expected
to continue on UT days 27-28 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 21224332
Cocos Island 9 11124331
Darwin 9 21124321
Townsville 11 21224332
Learmonth 16 22235342
Alice Springs 11 21224332
Gingin 13 21134342
Canberra 13 21225332
Hobart 14 21235332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 24 11356432
Casey 25 44534343
Mawson 45 42444674
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 3543 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 22 Unsettled to Active, with a chance of isolated
Minor Storm periods
27 Oct 21 Unsettled to Active
28 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 25 October, Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region, with some sites observing
an isolated period of Minor Storm levels. Unsettled to Major
Storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active for
the next three UT days (26 to 28 October), with a chance of isolated
Minor storm periods on 26 October, due to coronal hole effects.
Aurora may be visible over the next three UT days in Tasmania
and southern parts of Victoria.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
over the next three UT days, 26-28 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
27 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
28 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 25 October, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were mostly near predicted monthly values, with the Southern
Australian region observing some minor depressions in MUFs. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be at near predicted
monthly to moderately depressed levels during UT days 26-28 October
in response to recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.7e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 495000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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