[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 20 issued 2332 UT on 24 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 25 10:32:37 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 24 October and
is expected to stay Very Low for the next 3 UT days (25 to 27
October) with a small possibility of C-class flares. No earthbound
CMEs were observed in the available imagery. There is currently
one numbered sunspot region on the disk (AR2776 at S14 W66).
On UT day 24 October, the solar wind was enhanced due to the
influence of a north polar coronal hole extension. The solar
wind speed increased over the UT day and reached a maximum of
591 km/s at 24/1555 UT. The total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum
of 11 nT at 24/0027 UT, then decreased over the day, currently
varying between 2-4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) was mainly southward, reaching a minimum of -10 nT at 24/0107
UT, currently varying between -5 to 4 nT. The solar wind is expected
to remain at elevated levels then become further enhanced either
late on UT day 25 October or on UT day 26 October as the high
speed wind streams from another north polar coronal hole extension
and an equatorial coronal hole become geoeffective. The enhanced
solar winds are expected to continue on UT day 27 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 23332322
Cocos Island 8 22322311
Darwin 10 23322322
Townsville 11 23332322
Learmonth 11 23332322
Alice Springs 11 23332322
Gingin 11 32332322
Canberra 11 23332322
Hobart 11 23333321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 20 34444421
Casey 16 44432322
Mawson 43 66533535
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 1100 1254
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 18 Unsettled to Active
26 Oct 25 Unsettled to Active, with a chance of isolated
Minor storm periods
27 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 October and
is current for 23-25 Oct. On UT day 24 October, Quiet to Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region.
Unsettled to Storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Unsettled
to Active for the next three UT days (25 to 27 October), with
a chance of isolated Minor storm periods on 26 October, due to
coronal hole effects. Aurora may be visible over the next three
UT days in Tasmania and southern parts of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 25 and 27 October, and fair to poor conditions on
26 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
26 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
27 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 24 October. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be at near predicted monthly
to moderately depressed levels during UT days 25-27 October in
response to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 52900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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