[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 October 20 issued 2341 UT on 23 Oct 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 24 10:41:46 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 23 October and
is expected to stay Very Low for the next 3 UT days (24 to 26
October) with a small possibility of C-class flares. No earthbound
CMEs have been observed in the available imagery. There is currently
one numbered sunspot region on the disk (AR2776 at S14 W52).
On UT day 23 October, the solar wind became enhanced due to the
influence of a north polar coronal hole extension. The solar
wind speed ranged between 360-420 km/s at the start of the UT
day, then began to increase after 23/1738 UT reaching a maximum
of 530 km/s at 23/2154 UT. The total IMF (Bt) started between
4-6 nT, then began to increase around 23/1030UT, reaching a maximum
of 14 at 23/1621 UT, currently around 10 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) started the UT day varying between
+/-5 nT, then began to gradually increase. Bz was mainly northward,
then turned southward after 23/1815 UT, reaching a minimum of
-10.9 nT at 23/1930 UT. The solar wind is expected to remain
at elevated levels on UT day 24 October, then become further
enhanced either late on UT day 25 October or on UT day 26 October
as the high speed wind streams from another north polar coronal
hole extension and an equatorial coronal hole become geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 11113343
Cocos Island 7 11102333
Darwin 9 21113333
Townsville 10 21013343
Learmonth 11 21113343
Alice Springs 9 12013333
Gingin 9 11102343
Canberra 7 11002243
Hobart 7 12102233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 01000132
Casey 15 34311144
Mawson 33 33112276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 3000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 16 Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 21 Unsettled to Active
26 Oct 25 Unsettled to Active, with a chance of isolated
Minor storm periods
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 October and
is current for 23-25 Oct. On UT day 23 October, Quiet to Active
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian regions.
Quiet to Storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Unsettled
to Active for the next three UT days (24 to 26 October), with
a chance of isolated Minor storm periods on 26 October, due to
coronal hole effects. Aurora may be visible over the next three
UT days in Tasmania and southern parts of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for 24-25 October, then fair to poor on 26 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
25 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
26 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 23 October. Some sites
had periods of minor to moderate depressions during the local
day. The Cocos Island region observed enhanced MUFs during the
local day. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be at
near predicted monthly to moderately depressed levels during
UT days 24 to 26 October in response to the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.9e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 53900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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