[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 27 10:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 October. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk, AR2778
(S20W14). No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available imagery.
Solar activity is expected to stay very low for the next 3 UT
days, 27-29 October, with a small possibility of C-class flares.
On UT day 26 October, the solar wind continued to be enhanced
due to the influence of a north polar coronal hole extension.
The solar wind speed range was mostly 520-590 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 4-9 nT, and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied between -7/+8 nT and was mostly negative.
The enhanced solar wind speed is expected to continue on UT days
27-28 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Cocos Island 7 22223221
Darwin 9 22233222
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 15 32344232
Alice Springs 10 22333222
Gingin 13 32334232
Canberra 10 22333222
Hobart 10 22333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 25 23456321
Casey 18 44433233
Mawson 54 36435476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 3122 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 26 October and
is current for 26-27 Oct. On UT day 26 October, quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region,
with some sites observing isolated active periods. Mostly unsettled
to major storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled
with isolated active periods on UT day 27 October due to coronal
hole effects, then quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
over the next three UT days, 27-29 October. Moderately depressed
MUFs are likely in the Southern hemisphere due to recent increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct -35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
29 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 26 October, MUFs in the Northern Australian
regions were mostly near predicted monthly values with mild enhancements
during local night. In the Southern Australian region mildly
depressed MUFs were observed. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be near predicted monthly to moderately depressed
levels during UT days 27-29 October; the moderate depressions
are expected due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0e+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50e+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 423000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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