[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 21 10:31:35 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low on UT day 20 October 
and expected to stay very low for the next 3 UT days (21 to 23 
October) with a small possibility of C-class activity. No earthbound 
CMEs have been observed. Through UT day 20 October the solar 
wind speed decreased from 450 km/s to 370 km/s, the total IMF 
(Bt) decreased from 7 nT to 2 nT, IMF Bz varied in the range 
+3/-5 nT and solar wind particle density varied between 2 and 
7 ppcc. The effect of a coronal hole is expected to strengthen 
the solar wind parameters for the next three UT days (21 to 23 
October).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   22010000
      Townsville           2   21010011
      Learmonth            2   21100010
      Alice Springs        1   21000000
      Gingin               2   21100011
      Canberra             2   22010000
      Hobart               2   22110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     1   21000000
      Casey               11   34321113
      Mawson              14   34211144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0112 3121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active
23 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: On UT day 20 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian regions. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions with isolated active periods were observed in the 
Antarctic region. Global conditions are expected to be mostly 
quiet to unsettled on UT day 21 October and unsettled to active 
on 22 and 23 October due to coronal hole effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 20 October. Periods 
of minor MUF depressions were also observed in some low latitude 
regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values during UT days 21 to 23 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Oct    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct    -8    Near predicted monthly values
22 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values with minor to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 20 October. Periods of minor MUF depressions were also 
observed in the Northern areas. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values during 
UT days 21 to 23 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    55200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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