[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 21 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 22 10:31:29 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low on UT day 21 October 
and expected to stay very low for the next 3 UT days (22 to 24 
October) with a small possibility of C-class activity. No earthbound 
CMEs have been observed. Solar wind data could not become available 
on UT day 21 October from around 00:55 UT to 7:15 UT. As per 
the available data for UT day 21 October the solar wind speed 
varied between 330 km/s and 400 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) from 
2 nT to 10 nT, IMF Bz varied in the range +5/-4 nT and solar 
wind particle density varied between 4 and 17 ppcc. The effect 
of a coronal hole is expected to strengthen the solar wind parameters 
for the next three UT days (22 to 24 October).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21321111
      Cocos Island         3   21310100
      Darwin               5   21321111
      Townsville           7   21332111
      Alice Springs        5   12321101
      Gingin               4   10322011
      Canberra             7   22332011
      Hobart               7   12342001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    12   02354000
      Casey               18   35532122
      Mawson              14   53322231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2110 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    18    Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm 
                periods possible
23 Oct    18    Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm 
                periods possible
24 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: On UT day 21 October, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Australian regions. Mostly quiet 
to unsettled conditions with isolated minor storm periods were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three 
UT days (22 to 24 October) with some possibility of isolated 
minor storm periods, especially at high latitudes due to coronal 
hole effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 21 October. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values during UT 
days 22 to 24 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct    -6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values with minor to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 21 October. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values during UT days 22 
to 24 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list