[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 19 10:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low on UT day 18 October.
Spot region 2776 (S14E14) is currently classified as a Cao/beta
group. Newly assigned spot region 2777 (S22W79) is an Axx/alpha
group. Both regions produced B level flares. A CME originating
from behind the west limb and first observed in LASCO C2 images
at 0924 UT, is not expected to be geoeffective. Higher resolution
STEREO A images indicate the CME from 15 October will impact
STEREO A and is unlikely to be geoeffective. The solar wind has
been at background levels, peaking at 366 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) range was 1-8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was -4/+7 nT. Very low to low levels of solar activity
are expected 19-21 October. Previously numbered region 2773 is
likely to return on 19 October. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain mostly near background levels on 19 October. The passage
of a southern hemisphere coronal hole is expected to produce
mild enhancements in the solar wind on 20 October, persisting
into 21 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11100012
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 2110001-
Townsville 2 12100012
Learmonth 3 22100012
Alice Springs 2 11100012
Gingin 2 11100002
Canberra 2 11100012
Hobart 2 12100012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01100001
Casey 8 34310012
Mawson 10 21111035
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0121 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 7 Quiet. Chance of an unsettled period.
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 18 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on 19 October. The passage of a coronal hole
is expected to increase activity late on 20 October. Active periods
possible on 21 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next two UT days, 19-20 October. Mild degradations likely
later on 21 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced on UT day 18 October.
Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 12-17 UT, Darwin 00-09, 20-21,
23 UT and Brisbane 06-18 UT. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly
enhanced 19-21 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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