[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 18 10:31:29 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 October. Spot 
region 2776 (S12E31) is currently classified as a Cao/beta group. 
No CMEs were observed in available images. The solar wind has 
been at background levels, peaking at 334 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) range was 1-9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) 
range was -4/+6 nT. Very low to low levels of solar activity 
are expected 18-20 October. Previously numbered region 2773 may 
return on 18 October. The solar wind speed is expected to remain 
mostly near background levels 18-19 October. The passage of a 
southern hemisphere coronal hole and possibly a weak CME are 
expected to produce mild enhancements in the solar wind on 20 
October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112012
      Cocos Island         2   11101011
      Darwin               4   12112021
      Townsville           6   22122122
      Learmonth            5   12122112
      Alice Springs        4   12112012
      Gingin               3   12111111
      Canberra             4   12211012
      Hobart               4   13211011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   12410001
      Casey                7   33221112
      Mawson               6   23221012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1100 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     7    Quiet
19 Oct     7    Quiet
20 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled. An isolated active period 
                is possible.

COMMENT: On UT day 17 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet on 18-19 October. The passage of a coronal 
hole and possibly a weak CME are expected to increase activity 
on 20 October; an isolated active period is possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 18-20 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to enhanced on UT day 17 October. 
Sporadic E observed at Brisbane 12-14, 23 UT, Townsville 00, 
11-13 UT and Canberra 02-04 UT. Spread F observed at Hobart 13-19 
UT. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on 18-20 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 304 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    36100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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