[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 October 20 issued 2332 UT on 16 Oct 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 17 10:32:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 16 October. Spot region
2776 (S12E44) is classified as a Cao/beta group. It is likely
a developing region close to the southwest limb near S25, produced
a C1.5 flare and a C3.5 flare at 1257 UT and 1511 UT, respectively,
as it rotated onto the far side. Narrow ejecta associated with
the two flare events was observed in the limited images available,
but is not expected to impact Earth. A weak slow eastward CME
was first observed in LASCO C2 images around 15/0912 UT, appears
to have a trajectory westward of STEREO A. The CME may impact
Earth around 20 Oct. The solar wind has been at background levels,
peaking at 332 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 1-7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -4 and
+7 nT. Very low to low levels of solar activity are expected
17-19 October. No returning regions expected. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain mostly near background levels 17-19
October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 12210111
Cocos Island 2 11110101
Darwin 4 22220102
Townsville 5 22221111
Learmonth 4 22221101
Alice Springs 2 12210001
Gingin 3 12110012
Canberra 2 11210011
Hobart 3 12210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 9 34320112
Mawson 10 22111125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 7 Quiet
18 Oct 7 Quiet
19 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 16 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on 17-19 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 17-19 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced on UT day 16 October.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on 17-19 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 271 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 11200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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