[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 16 10:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 October. There
is one numbered region, 2776(S12E60) on the visible solar disk
and two plages without spots. Region 2776 grew somehow in area
and magnetic complexity over the period and produced several
low level B-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days, 16-18 October with a chance
of isolated C-class flares. No Earthbound CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 15 October, the
solar wind speed was near its background levels, 260-310 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied between -2 and + 5 nT, mostly northward.
During the next three UT days, 16-18 October, the solar wind
speed is expected to remain near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 1 01000111
Darwin 2 12000111
Townsville 2 11000112
Learmonth 2 11000112
Alice Springs 1 10000111
Gingin 1 00000012
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 4 13210012
Mawson 2 11000003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 5 Quiet
18 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 15 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 16-18 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 16-18 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly levels on UT day 15 October. Mildly enhanced
MUFs were observed in the Southern Australian region during local
night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 16-18 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 277 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 11500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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