[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 15 10:31:34 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Oct             16 Oct             17 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 October. There 
are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
15-17 October. No Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During 14 October, the solar wind speed 
was near its background levels, 260-310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
varied in the range 3-6 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) was mostly positive (northward) during the last 24 hours. 
During the next three UT days, 15-17 October, the solar wind 
speed is expected to remain near its background levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100000
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                5   33200001
      Mawson               3   11000031

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Oct     5    Quiet
16 Oct     5    Quiet
17 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 14 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region and quiet to unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 15-17 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 15-17 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Oct    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.  
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly levels on UT day 14 October. Mildly enhanced 
MUFs were observed mostly in the Southern Australian region during 
local night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 15-17 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:   12.0 p/cc  Temp:    14600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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