[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 14 10:31:38 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 October. There
are no spots visible in white light on the solar disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
14-16 October. No CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During 13 October, the solar wind speed remained steady,
near its background level. The solar wind speed range was 280-310
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly in the range 4-8 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) was mostly positive (northward)
during the last 24 hours. During the next three UT days, 14-16
October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near
its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100110
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 3 22100111
Townsville 2 21110110
Learmonth 3 12100211
Alice Springs 2 21100110
Gingin 2 21100100
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 5 33210001
Mawson 4 32000003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 5 Quiet
16 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 13 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 14-16 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 14-16 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 13
October. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 14-16 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 15100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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