[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 8 10:31:31 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 October. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 08-10 October. Weak(faint and narrow) CME activity observed 
in LASCO and STEREO images starting 06/1936 UT. This activity 
will be further analysed. No other significant CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 07 October, the 
solar wind speed was slightly enhanced, varying in the range 
320-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3-10 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-7 nT. During 
the next three UT days, 08-10 October, the solar wind speed is 
expected to be mostly near its background levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12123211
      Cocos Island         4   12113110
      Darwin               6   22123102
      Townsville           7   22123212
      Learmonth            7   12223212
      Alice Springs        5   12123201
      Gingin               5   12112222
      Canberra             4   12112201
      Hobart               3   02112201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     1   01002100
      Casey               11   34322122
      Mawson              11   22113115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2421 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Oct     5    Quiet
10 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 07 October. Isolated active and minor storm 
levels occurred in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 08-10 October. Possible 
isolated unsettled periods today, 08 October as solar wind parameters 
are slightly enhanced.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 08-10 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT day 07 October. Sporadic 
E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 08-10 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:   12.5 p/cc  Temp:    18700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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