[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 7 10:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 October. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 07-09 October. A slow CME observed in LASCO and STEREO
images around 06/0636 UT probably associated with some prominence
activity observed earlier in Learmonth GONG Halpha imagery over
the NW limb, it is not considered geoeffective. No other CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 06
October, the solar wind speed remained near its background levels,
varying in the range 320-370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 4-10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -3 to +8 nT, mostly positive. During the next three UT days,
07-09 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near its background levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12112111
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 3 12012111
Townsville 4 12122111
Learmonth 4 12112111
Alice Springs 2 12012001
Gingin 2 12111001
Canberra 2 12011001
Hobart 2 12111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 12100000
Casey 6 23321002
Mawson 11 35222011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1011 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 7 Mostly Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 06 October. Isolated unsettled and minor storm levels
occurred in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 07-09 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 07-09 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 06 October. Sporadic
E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 07-09 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 17800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list