[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 9 10:31:30 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 October. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
Two unnumbered regions emerged in the SE quadrant, they are monitored 
for any development. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 09-11 October. No CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 08 October, the 
solar wind speed decreased from 420 Km/s to 300 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2-5 nT and the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) was mostly neutral. During the next three UT days, 
09-11 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly 
near its background levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100001
      Cocos Island         1   12000000
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Townsville           2   21110011
      Learmonth            2   22100001
      Alice Springs        2   22000001
      Gingin               2   11100111
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   12000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                7   33320011
      Mawson              12   23201135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0110 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct     5    Quiet
10 Oct     5    Quiet
11 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 08 October. Isolated unsettled and minor storm 
levels occurred in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 09-11 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 09-11 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT day 08 October. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 09-11 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:   13.6 p/cc  Temp:    37400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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