[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 18 10:31:34 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 November. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, 2783 
(S22E69) and 2782 (S32W14). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low for the next three UT days, 18-20 November. On 
UT day 17 November, the solar wind speed was near its nominal 
levels, varying in the range 280-320 km/s. The current solar 
wind speed is near 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 1 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) range was mostly +3/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near its nominal levels for the next two UT days, 18-19 
November. The solar wind speed is expected to enhance on UT day 
20 November due to approaching patchy equatorial coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10011001
      Cocos Island         2   -2121000
      Darwin               1   10011001
      Townsville           1   10111001
      Learmonth            2   10011002
      Alice Springs        1   11011001
      Gingin               2   10011002
      Canberra             1   00011001
      Hobart               1   00021001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021000
      Casey                5   32122001
      Mawson               4   20112003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     5    Quiet
19 Nov     5    Quiet
20 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17 November. Mostly quiet geomagnetic 
conditions with isolated unsettled periods are expected for the 
next two UT days, 18-19 November. On UT day 20 November, mostly 
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected due to the possible 
arrival of the coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal and at times fair HF propagation conditions 
are expected during the next three UT days, 18-20 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly depressed 
to near predicted monthly values during UT day 17 November. Sporadic 
E blanketing and spread F were observed at some sites. MUFs in 
the Australian region are expected to be mildly depressed to 
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 18-20 
November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 291 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    14000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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