[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 17 10:31:36 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 November. There
are currently no sunspot regions visible in white light. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three
UT days, 17-19 November. On UT day 16 November,the solar wind
speed was steady, near its nominal level. The current solar wind
speed is near 300 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between
1 nT and 4 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range
was mostly +4/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near
its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 17-19 November.
Slightly enhanced levels may be observed due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11001000
Cocos Island 0 01000100
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11011000
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Gingin 0 00001100
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 0 01001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 6 23321100
Mawson 3 22111110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1200 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 5 Quiet
18 Nov 5 Quiet
19 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 16 November. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions with isolated unsettled periods are expected for the
next three UT days, 17-19 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 17-19 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly depressed
to near predicted monthly values during UT day 16 November. Sporadic
E blanketing and spread F were observed at some sites. MUFs in
the Australian regions are expected to mildly depressed to near
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 17-19 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 32300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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