[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 19 10:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 November. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disk,
2783 (S22E56) and 2782 (S32W27). No Earthward directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days, 19-21
November. On UT day 18 November, the solar wind speed was near
its nominal levels, varying in the range 280-310 km/s. The current
solar wind speed is near 300 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
mostly between 3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of
the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +1/-3 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be near its nominal levels for today 19 November.
The solar wind speed is expected to enhance to mildly elevated
levels on UT day 20 and 21 November due to the approaching coronal
hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 10000012
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Gingin 2 11100012
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 2 21101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10101000
Casey 7 33320011
Mawson 10 31111125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 5 Quiet
20 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18 November. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions with isolated unsettled periods are expected for today,
19 November. On UT day 20 November, mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected due to the possible arrival of the coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal and at times fair HF propagation conditions
are expected during the next three UT days, 19-21 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 18 November. Sporadic E blanketing
were observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 19-21 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 16600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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