[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 11 10:31:39 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 November. Region
2781(S23W22) showed continued decrease and produced an impulsive
C1.3 flare at 10/1946UT. A new region has rotated on the southeast
limb while region 2780(N20W49) is spotless. No CME signature
was observed in association with the C-flare up to 10/2124UT.
No other Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three
UT days, 11-13 November with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
On UT day 10 November,the solar wind speed was near its nominal
levels. The total IMF (Bt) was around 5 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) was positive. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near its nominal levels for the next three
UT days, 11-13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11100000
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 5 23310000
Mawson 1 11000001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 5 Quiet
12 Nov 5 Quiet
13 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region
on UT day 10 November. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are
expected for UT days 11-13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 11-13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values on UT day 10 November. Slightly enhanced MUFS observed
at Cocos Island region. Sporadic E blanketing was observed at
some sites. Similar ionospheric conditions are expected during
UT days 11-13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 96300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list