[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 12 10:31:38 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 11 November with a
C2.6 flare from new region 2782(S32E64) at 11/1912UT. There is
currently two numbered regions on the visible disk; 2781((S23W35)
and 2782. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be mostly low
for the next three UT days, 12-14 November. On UT day 11 November,the
solar wind speed was near its nominal levels, under 350 Km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3-8 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) range was +/- 4 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near its nominal levels for the next
three UT days, 12-14 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 00001222
Darwin 3 10001222
Townsville 3 00001222
Learmonth 5 01111223
Alice Springs 3 00001222
Gingin 3 10011222
Canberra 3 00101222
Hobart 2 00110212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00000112
Casey 5 12211222
Mawson 6 10001243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 7 Mostly Quiet
13 Nov 5 Quiet
14 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and mostly quiet with one isolated unsettled to active
period in the Antarctic region on UT day 11 November. Mostly
quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three
UT days, 12-14 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 12-14 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values on UT day 11 November. Sporadic E blanketing and spread
F were observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions
are expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next
three UT days, 12-14 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 13700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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