[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 November 20 issued 2332 UT on 09 Nov 2020

Tue Nov 10 10:32:39 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov:  90/34

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 November. Region 
2781(S23W10) decreased over the period and produced several low 
level B-class flares. Region 2780(N20W37) is currently spotless. 
A CME was observed around 08/2012UT in LASCO-C2 imagery, it is 
not expected to be geoeffective. No other Earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days, 
10-12 November with a slight chance of an M-class flare. On UT 
day 09 November,the solar wind was slightly enhanced but decreasing 
in trend, currently around 350 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 2-6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
range was +/-3 nT, mostly northward. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be near its nominal levels for the next three UT 
days, 10-12 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000000
      Darwin               0   10000000
      Townsville           0   10100000
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000100
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22210111
      Mawson               1   10001100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2220 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov     5    Quiet
11 Nov     5    Quiet
12 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 09 November. Mostly quiet geomagnetic 
conditions are expected for UT days 10-12 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 10-12 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Nov    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 09 November. MUFs in the Australian 
regions are expected to be near predicted monthly values for 
the next three UT days, 10-12 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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