[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 10:31:39 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 04 November. Region 
2781 (S23E55) produced five C flares, the largest a C1.8 at 1711 
UT. Region 2780 (N20E28) has redeveloped spots and is a Bxo/beta 
group. Region 2781 has further developed and is now a Dko/beta 
group. A region appears to be developing near S20W17. No CMEs 
observed in coronagraph images. The solar wind speed was mostly 
below 350 km/s. The maximum total IMF was 5 nT with a north-south 
IMF (Bz) range of -3/+3 nT. Solar activity is expected to be 
low to moderate with a low chance of M flares from AR 2781. There 
are no returning regions expected. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near nominal levels on 05 November. There is likely to 
be a mild enhancement in solar wind parameters on 06 and 07 November 
due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000001
      Darwin               1   10000101
      Townsville           1   11000110
      Learmonth            1   10001101
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Gingin               0   00000001
      Canberra             0   00100010
      Hobart               1   01110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   23321011
      Mawson               5   41122000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov     7    Quiet
06 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of isolated active 
                periods.
07 Nov    11    Mostly unsettled. Chance of isolated active periods.

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 04 November. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on 05 November. Unsettled periods 
with a chance of isolated active periods possible on 06 to 07 
November due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 05-07 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhancements to 30% at Darwin 05-15 UT, depressions
      to 25% at Townsville 04-08 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values otherwise.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 04 November. Night spread F observed 
at Hobart 11-17 UT. MUFs are likely to be near predicted values 
with some enhancements due to increased solar flux on 05-06 November. 
Possible mild depressions on 07 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    93000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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