[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Nov 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 6 10:31:19 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 91/36 91/36 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 05 November. Region
2781 (S23E42) has developed into an Ekc/beta-gamma group and
has produced 10 low level C flares and a C7.3 at 0022 UT. Region
2780 (N20E15) has evolved and is now a Cro/beta group. No CMEs
observed in coronagraph images. Solar wind parameters became
mildly disturbed at 1145 UT likely due to the expected coronal
hole effects. Solar wind speed has trended upwards since and
peaked at 400 km/s. The maximum total IMF was 10 nT with a north-south
IMF (Bz) range of -7/+7 nT. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate with a low chance of M flares from AR 2781. No
regions expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Solar wind
parameters are expected to be mildly disturbed on 06 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 00102022
Darwin 4 11102122
Townsville 4 10002123
Learmonth 3 00102122
Alice Springs 3 01002022
Gingin 2 00002022
Canberra 2 00102012
Hobart 2 00102012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000002
Casey 9 23322113
Mawson 8 11223114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of an isolated Active
period
07 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 05 November. Global conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of an isolated
active period on 06 November due to coronal hole effects. Quiet
to unsettled on 07 and 08 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 06-08 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
07 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
08 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 5
November and is current for 4-7 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 05 November.
MUFs are likely to be near predicted values with some mild depressions
on 06-07 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 29200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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