[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 4 10:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 03 November. Region
2780 (N21E49) has decayed to plage while newly assigned 2781
(S21E65), last classified as a Dko/beta group, produced a C1.1
flare at 0703 UT. There are no returning regions expected and
no CMEs have been observed in available images. The solar wind
speed was mostly below 400 km/s. The maximum total IMF was 5
nT with a north-south IMF (Bz) range of -3/+2 nT. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near nominal levels on 04 and 05 November. There is likely
to be a mild enhancement in solar wind parameters on 06 November
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 2 11001012
Learmonth 1 01100002
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Gingin 1 01000002
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 1 11010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23321011
Mawson 12 42111025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 7 Quiet
05 Nov 7 Quiet
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible isolated Active
periods.
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03 November. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on 04-05 November. Unsettled periods
with isolated active periods possible on 06 November due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 04-06 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day and pre-dawn.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT
day with occasional depressions to 25%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values with some mild
depressions
05 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-4 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region were
depressed to near predicted monthly values on UT day 03 November.
Sporadic E was observed pre-dawn at Cocos Is. and Hobart 04-05
and 11-18 UT. Spread F observed at Canberra and Sydney 11-17
UT. MUFs are likely to be near predicted values with likelihood
of continued mild depressions on 04 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 65200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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