[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 3 10:31:36 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 November. Newly 
assigned spot group 2780 (N21E62) has developed into a Bxo/beta 
group. More impressive spot region (SN30), located at S24E88, 
is an Axx/alpha group. There are no returning regions expected. 
Weak and narrow ejecta was observed at 0512 UT off the solar 
east limb is not expected to be geoeffective and is likely linked 
to SN30. The solar wind speed was mostly below 410 km/s. The 
total IMF range was 3-9 nT with a north-south IMF (Bz) range 
of -4/+6 nT, mostly northward. A weak transient arrived around 
0630 UT causing a temperature increase along with a slight wind 
speed increase. Solar activity is expected to be very low to 
low, although background x-ray flux levels are mildly elevated. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be near nominal levels 03-05 
November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00100001
      Darwin               0   0011000-
      Townsville           0   00010001
      Learmonth            1   10110001
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Gingin               0   00000011
      Canberra             1   10100001
      Hobart               1   01100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                8   23420012
      Mawson               7   11211124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   0122 3241     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     7    Quiet
04 Nov     7    Quiet
05 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 02 November. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on 03-05 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 03-05 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov   -28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed by 20%
      before dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day and before dawn.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov   -20    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Nov   -15    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-4 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. Sporadic 
E observed 00-05 UT at Townsville, 01-05 and 19-21 UT at Learmonth, 
12-17 UT at Brisbane. Spread F observed at Hobart noted 10-16 
UT. MUFs are likely to be moderately depressed to near predicted 
values on 03 November. Sporadic E may affect communications at 
times.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    62900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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