[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 November 20 issued 2344 UT on 01 Nov 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 2 10:44:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 01 November with several
B-class flares and two C-class flares, the largest being a C3
flare from region 2779(S15W89) at 1730 UT. Region 2777(S25) is
due to return on the East limb. Solar activity is expected to
remain low for the next 24 hours with a slight chance of an isolated
M-class flare. No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available
imagery. On UT day 01 November, the solar wind was slightly enhanced,
between 380-420 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-8 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was +/-6
nT with one sustained southward period between 01/1150-1900UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal levels
for the next three UT days, 02-04 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11123320
Darwin 6 11123320
Townsville 8 21133320
Learmonth 8 10133330
Alice Springs 6 11123320
Gingin 8 11124320
Canberra 6 11123320
Hobart 7 11223320
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 11145320
Casey 17 45422321
Mawson 22 23233455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1133 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 7 Mostly quiet
03 Nov 5 Quiet
04 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 01 November, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region. Unsettled
conditions are associated with a southward sustained period.
Quiet to minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days
02-04 November with a chance of an isolated unsettled period
today 02 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 02-04 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 01 November, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.
Sporadic E noted throughout the Australian region. Sporadic E
blanketing was observed at some sites. Similar ionospheric conditions
are expected during UT days 02-04 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 62000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list