[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 29 09:31:29 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 May. Two low 
B-class flares were observed. A CME from the west limb was also 
observed in LASCO C2 and C3 images. The CME seems to be a farside 
event. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 29 to 31 May. The visible disc is 
spotless. No returning regions expected. During UT day 28 May, 
the solar wind speed varied in the range 280 to 310 km/s, the 
total IMF (Bt) between 2 and 5 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) between -4 and +4 nT. The solar wind particle density varied 
mostly in the range 3 to 10 ppcc through this day. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to show small enhancements on UT days 
29 and 30 May due to possible minor coronal hole effects and 
then return to normal values on 31 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00101000
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               0   10001000
      Townsville           1   11101001
      Learmonth            1   00101100
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Gingin               0   00101000
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               1   00111100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                2   02201100
      Mawson               2   02110200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              3   1001 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled
30 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled
31 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 28 May. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on UT days 29 
and 30 May and then return to quiet levels on 31 May. The slight 
rises in the geomagnetic activity on 29 and 30 May are expected 
due to possible minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to 
moderate enhancements on UT day 28 May. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 29 to 
31 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    -4    Near predicted monthly values
30 May    -4    Near predicted monthly values
31 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to 
moderate enhancements in the Australian region on UT day 28 May. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly at 
normal levels for the next three UT days, 29 to 31 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    12900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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