[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 20 issued 2336 UT on 29 May 2020

Sat May 30 09:36:54 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate on UT day 29 May. An active 
region just on the farside on the NE limb had one M-class flare 
(M1.1 at 29/0724 UT), two C-class flares (C9.3 at 29/1046 UT 
and C1.0 at 29/1422 UT) and several B-class flares. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
Low levels of solar activity, with a chance of isolated M-class 
flares, are expected for the next three UT days, 30 May to 01 
June. The visible disc is spotless. The active region on the 
NE limb will rotate into view during the next 24 hours. During 
UT day 29 May, the solar wind speed varied in the range 270 to 
320 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 1 and 8 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) between -5 and +6 nT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to show small enhancements on UT days 30 May to 
01 June due to possible minor coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000001
      Cocos Island         1   01010001
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           2   11000012
      Learmonth            0   10000001
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00100000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   10000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                0   01000000
      Mawson               4   11000033

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled
31 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
Quiet on UT day 29 May. The Antarctic region observed mainly 
Quiet conditions with an isolated Unsettled period. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT 
days 30 May to 01 June due to possible minor coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with Mild to 
Moderate enhancements on UT day 29 May. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 30 May 
to 01 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 May    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
31 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with Mild to 
Moderate enhancements in the Australian region on UT day 29 May. 
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next 
three UT days, 30 May to 01 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 298 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    15100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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