[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 28 09:31:28 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 May. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
28 to 30 May. The visible disc is spotless. No returning regions 
expected. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. During UT day 27 May, the solar wind speed 
varied in the range 300 to 340 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 
1 and 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) between -2 
and +4 nT. The solar wind particle density varied mostly in the 
range 3 to 13 ppcc through this day. Solar wind parameters are 
expected to remain mostly at normal levels on UT day 28 May. 
Small enhancements in the solar wind parameters may happen on 
UT days 29 and 30 May due to possible minor coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111010
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               1   11101010
      Townsville           2   11111010
      Learmonth            2   11111010
      Alice Springs        0   01000010
      Gingin               0   00001100
      Canberra             0   00011000
      Hobart               1   00012000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                2   12101100
      Mawson               3   30201110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1121 1012    


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     4    Quiet
29 May     7    Quiet with some unsettled periods
30 May     7    Quiet with some unsettled periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 27 May and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region, 
with one period of unsettled conditions recorded on one Antarctic 
station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 28 to 30 May with 
some possibility of unsettled conditions on 29 and 30 May due 
to possible minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to 
moderate enhancements on UT day 27 May. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 28 to 
30 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May     2    Near predicted monthly values
29 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
30 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to 
moderate enhancements in the Australian region on UT day 27 May. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly at 
normal levels for the next three UT days, 28 to 30 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    16400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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