[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 4 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 03 March. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 04-06
March. A CME was observed in STEREO imagery staring 02/2024UT
but faint on LASCO imagery. This event will be further analysed
to determine if it has any earth directed component. A filament
structure located in the NE quadrant was observed lifting off
in GONG H-alpha imagery starting 03/0300UT. No clear CME signature
was detected in the available coronagraph imagery in association
with this event. On UT day 03 March, the solar wind speed remained
slightly enhanced, varied between 400-450 km/s, decreasing in
general. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-6 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain slightly enhanced for the next three days,04-06
March due to weak coronal holes effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21102211
Cocos Island 3 10102212
Darwin 2 11002201
Townsville 4 21012212
Learmonth 4 20102212
Alice Springs 2 10102210
Gingin 5 21002322
Canberra 4 20003211
Hobart 6 21113311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 21023301
Casey 12 23323323
Mawson 15 33213325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 03 March was Quiet for the
Australian region with some isolated Unsettled periods at higher
latitudes. The Antarctic region observed mostly Quiet to Unsettled
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 04-06 March and a times
may reach Unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 04-06 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar -4 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar -4 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to enhanced for the Australian region on 03 March.
Minor MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region local day.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels
of ionospheric support is expected for the next three UT days,
04-06 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 99100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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